有色套利早报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 11, 2025 [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spot price is 78,540 (domestic) and 9,639 (LME) with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,470 (domestic) and 9,709 (LME) with a ratio of 8.08. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17 with a profit of - 15.62 [1]. - Zinc: Spot price is 22,480 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 7.99; March price is 22,520 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 5.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.66 with a profit of - 1,883.64 [1]. - Aluminum: Spot price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,611 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,614 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.49 with a profit of - 1,513.68 [1]. - Nickel: Spot price is 119,850 (domestic) and 14,946 (LME) with a ratio of 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 1,763.36 [1]. - Lead: Spot price is 16,700 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.50; March price is 16,850 (domestic) and 1,999 (LME) with a ratio of 11.26. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85 with a profit of - 692.53 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 20, 0, - 40 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 494, 887, 1288, 1689 [4]. - Zinc: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 35, - 30, - 25, - 55 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 459, 581 [4]. - Aluminum: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 65, - 100, - 140, - 190 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, 562 [4]. - Lead: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 20, 25, 50, 60 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, 525 [4]. - Nickel: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 470, - 310, - 130, 150 respectively [4]. - Tin: 5 - 1 spread is 710 with a theoretical spread of 5558 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 55 and - 15 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 155 and 596 [4]. - Zinc: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 70 and 35 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 101 and 232 (also 114 and 228 mentioned) [4][5]. - Lead: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 125 and 145 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 117 and 228 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.48, 3.80, 4.66, 0.92, 1.23, 0.75 in Shanghai (triple - continuous) and 3.45, 3.74, 4.86, 0.92, 1.30, 0.71 in London (triple - continuous) [5].