大越期货天胶早报-20250811

Report Information - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rubber market has support at the bottom, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental analysis shows that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level, presenting a neutral situation [4] - Based on the basis, the spot price is 14,500 with a basis of - 1,050, indicating a bearish signal [4] - In terms of inventory, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased year - on - year but decreased week - on - week, showing a neutral situation [4] - The disk shows that the 20 - day moving average is upward, but the price is running below it, which is neutral [4] - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [4] 2. Fundamental Data (1) Supply and Demand - Likely to Rise Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Likely to Fall Factors: Increasing supply and the lack of seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6] (2) Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 8 [8] (3) Inventory - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14] - The inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly recently [17] (4) Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] (5) Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising [23][26] - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [29] - Tire industry exports are falling [32] (6) Basis - The basis strengthened on August 8 [35]