PTA、MEG早报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The spot basis of PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the spot price is expected to move sideways in the short term. The continuous low processing margin has led to increased changes in PTA plants recently, but the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season [5]. - MEG: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol is expected to increase significantly next Monday, but the increase in port inventory is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is basically balanced in the medium and short term, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No information is provided in the content. 2.每日提示 - PTA - Fundamentals: On Friday, a small number of polyester factories made bids, and an individual mainstream supplier sold goods. The August goods were traded at a discount of 15 - 20 to the 09 contract, and the goods for late September were traded around 09 + 5. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 18 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4670, and the basis of the 09 contract is - 14, with the futures price at a discount [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA plants is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing [5]. - Expectation: Mainstream suppliers have been continuously selling goods this week, and the spot basis is running weakly. However, due to the continuous low processing margin, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. In terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will move sideways in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range [5]. - MEG - Fundamentals: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated little during the day, and the spot was traded at a premium of 70 - 79 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. The negotiation in the market was stalemate. In the US dollar market, the price center of ethylene glycol was sorted at a low level, and the recent mainstream trading of vessel cargoes was around 520 - 524 US dollars/ton, with traders' buying moderately following up [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4456, and the basis of the 09 contract is 72, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing [7]. - Expectation: The warehousing of ethylene glycol vessels was smooth last week, and it is expected that the visible inventory will increase significantly next Monday. However, the increase in port inventory is not sustainable, and the arrival volume of foreign vessels will decrease around the middle of the month. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is basically balanced in the medium and short term, and the inventory in the main port trade tanks is low. As time goes by, the demand support will gradually strengthen. It is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong [6]. 3.今日关注 No information is provided in the content. 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It details the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol production rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price - related Data: There are charts and data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads from 2019 - 2025 [14][16][17][19]. - Inventory Analysis Data: There are charts and data on the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers from 2020 - 2025 [40][41][43]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rate Data: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [51][52][54][56]. - Profit - related Data: There are charts and data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins, and polyester fiber production margins from 2022 - 2025 [59][62][65].