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白糖早报-20250811
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-11 02:24

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The consumption peak season is coming to an end, and the significant increase in out-of-quota imported sugar in July has put short-term downward pressure on the 01 contract. It is advisable to adopt a short-term bearish and oscillatory trading strategy [5][8]. - The overall evaluation of the sugar market is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present. Positive factors include strong domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs, while negative factors include increased global sugar production and supply surplus in the new season [4][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales ratio of 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,010 yuan, with a basis of 437 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a positive factor [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons, which is a positive factor [6]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with a net short position increasing. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the global sugar market surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 2.7 million tons, USDA predicts 11.397 million tons, Czarnikow predicts 7.8 million tons, and Datagro predicts 2.58 million tons [36]. - Domestic Sugar Market Data: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugarcane planting area, sugar production, import volume, and consumption in China are expected to remain relatively stable. The international sugar price is expected to range from 16.5 to 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to range from 5,800 to 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - Import Cost: The refined after-tax cost of imported raw sugar (50% tariff) has been decreasing. In July 2025, the ICE raw sugar average price was 16.35 cents per pound, and the refined after-tax cost was between 5,600 and 5,650 yuan per ton [42]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, with a net short position increasing, and the main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5].