大越期货纯碱早报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. With the fading of the sentiment of policy incentives, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. Summary by Directory Daily View - Fundamentals: There are few maintenance activities at soda ash plants, so supply remains high. The daily melting volume of float glass downstream is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, resulting in weakening terminal demand. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,235 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1,332 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 97 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% compared with the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - Market trend: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the strong supply and weak demand in the fundamentals of soda ash and the fading of policy - induced positive sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: As the peak maintenance season in summer approaches, production will decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - grade soda ash has cut production, leading to weakening demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.84% to 1,332 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - grade soda ash in Shahe decreased by 1.59% to 1,235 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 4.90% to - 97 yuan [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - grade soda ash in the Shahe market, Hebei is 1,235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy - grade soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - soda process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.41%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - grade soda ash, which is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly - added capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned newly - added capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual planned launch of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - For float glass, the national daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19% [28]. - For photovoltaic glass, prices have been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume of in - production glass has decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].