建信期货豆粕日报-20250811

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: August 11, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Domestic Soybean Meal Futures: For the contracts of Soybean Meal 2601, 2509, and 2511, the closing prices were 3094, 3045, and 3081 respectively, with daily increases of 0.85%, 0.83%, and 0.75%. The trading volumes were 609,803, 553,208, and 86,751, and the open interests were 1,650,480, 1,060,946, and 651,771 respectively. The changes in open interests were +49,993, -67,719, and -396 [6]. - US Soybean Futures: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main - contract at 990 cents. The new - season US soybeans are growing well, with a current excellent - good rate of 69%, the best in the same period in the past five years. Only 3% of the US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, and the soil moisture has some tolerance. The weather in the next two weeks is expected to have moderate rainfall, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The demand for US soybeans is relatively weak as China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans due to a 23% tariff [6]. Operational Suggestions - Unless there are significant changes in tariffs, maintain a bullish view on soybean meal in the medium - term. Wait for potential negative impacts from the August USDA report to materialize before making investment decisions [6]. Group 3: Industry News - USDA Monthly Report Forecast: Analysts predict that the global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 127.42 million tons, the US soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 season will be 347 million bushels, the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.365 billion bushels, the US soybean yield for the 2025/26 season will be 52.9 bushels per acre, and the US soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season will be 349 million bushels [7][9]. - USDA Drought Monitoring Report: As of the week of August 5, about 3% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% in the same period last year [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the USD/CNY central parity rate, and the USD/BRL exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14]