Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are in a range-bound consolidation. The domestic fundamental situation is loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA expects high yields in South America for the 24/25 season. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamental situation of oils and fats is neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamental situation of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventories decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current ship survey agencies indicate a 4% month-on-month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,480, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main positions: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to trade in a range of 8,200 - 8,600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,080, with a basis of 100, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main positions: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to trade in a range of 8,800 - 9,200 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,680, with a basis of 106, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 630,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main positions: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to trade in a range of 9,400 - 9,800 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5] Supply and Demand Aspects - Supply: Includes import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [24] - Demand: Includes soybean oil apparent consumption [14]
大越期货油脂早报-20250811
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-11 02:32