棉花早报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex with mixed signals. The fundamental factors are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bearish, the market trend on the disk is bearish, the main - position holding is bullish but with an unclear trend, and the future expectation is weak. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, and the long - term outlook is not optimistic due to factors such as the delay of Sino - US trade negotiations, poor textile export data, and the current consumption off - season [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the reduction of previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Bearish factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, high tariffs on exports to the US, the consumption off - season, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information about the previous day's review is provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year. The ICAC August report predicts a global output of 2590 tons, consumption of 2560 tons; the USDA July report forecasts an output of 2578.3 tons, consumption of 2571.8 tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 tons; the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows an output of 625 tons, imports of 140 tons, consumption of 740 tons, and an ending inventory of 823 tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were 26.77 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,178 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1378 yuan, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for ending inventory is 823 tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Trend on the Disk: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main - Position Holding: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: The Sino - US trade negotiations are further postponed, lower than market expectations. The textile export data in July during the rush - export window is not ideal. Currently in the consumption off - season, the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to move sideways in the short - term, and the future expectation is weak [4]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information about today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (July): In 2024/25, the total global output is 2578.3 tons, with consumption of 2571.8 tons, imports of 972.8 tons, exports of 973 tons, and an ending inventory of 1683.5 tons. Different countries have different trends in output, consumption, import, and export [8][9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (2025/26): The global output is 2.590 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast (July 2025/26): The output is 625 tons, imports are 140 tons, consumption is 740 tons, and the ending inventory is 823 tons [4]. 3.5. Position Data The main - position holding is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4].