铁矿石早报（2025-8-11）-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival volume this month has decreased, the overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy will be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14,267.27 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected reduction in domestic demand and the impact of the production capacity reduction plan on the market, a high - level oscillation mindset is recommended [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 利多 (Bullish Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The prices of downstream steel products are rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. 利空 (Bearish Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Iron Ore Port Spot Price - Not elaborated in the provided content Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 812, with a basis of 38; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures - equivalent price is 832, with a basis of 58, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [2]. Iron Ore Import Profit - Not elaborated in the provided content Iron Ore Shipping Volume - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory - Port inventories are 14,267.27 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year [2]. Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume - Not elaborated in the provided content Iron Ore Daily Consumption - Not elaborated in the provided content Steel Enterprise Production Situation - Steel mill's hot metal production is starting to decrease [2]. Iron Ore Port Daily Transactions and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal - Not elaborated in the provided content