Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a slight premium of the spot over the futures, also neutral. The inventory situation is mixed, with a decrease in overall copper inventory on August 8 but an increase in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main players is increasing, presenting a bullish signal. Overall, due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap - copper policy is loosened, and the July PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot price is 78505, basis is 15, showing a premium of the spot over the futures; neutral [2]. - Inventory: On August 8, copper inventory decreased by 150 to 155850 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2]. - Main Position: The main players have a net long position, and the long position is increasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will fluctuate and adjust [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多 and 利空: No specific content provided for利多 and 利空, but the logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Inventory - related - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 9390 tons to 81933 tons compared to last week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [20][22].
大越期货沪铜早报-20250811
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-11 02:32