大越期货沪铝早报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are neutral due to carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real estate market. The macro - short - term sentiment is volatile. The spot price shows a discount to the futures price, and inventory changes are neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, and the主力 net position is long but decreasing. Overall, carbon - neutrality will bring long - term positive impacts on aluminum prices, but with multiple factors at play, aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. - The market is in a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand. Positive factors include carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disruptions in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest rate cuts. Negative factors include the unoptimistic global economy and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream consumption, as well as the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Aluminum Fundamentals - The supply side is affected by carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion. The demand side is not strong due to the soft real estate market, and the macro - short - term sentiment is changeable. The overall assessment of fundamentals is neutral [2]. Price and Basis - The spot price is 20650, with a basis of - 35, showing a discount to the futures price, and the assessment is neutral [2]. Inventory - The SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 3913 tons to 113614 tons compared to last week. Other inventory data shows that the Shanghai inventory was 70798 tons (an increase of 699 tons), the LME inventory was 74750 tons (a decrease of 425 tons), and the SHFE inventory (daily) was 136300 tons (an increase of 29728 tons) [2][4]. Market Trends - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is running upward, indicating a bullish trend. The主力 net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, also showing a bullish tendency [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table for aluminum (in 10,000 tons) shows that from 2018 - 2024, there were periods of supply shortages and a small surplus in 2024. For example, in 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61; in 2020, it was 1.3; in 2024, it was 15 [25].