大越期货燃料油早报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fuel oil market is expected to operate weakly overall. The FU2509 is expected to trade in the range of 2760 - 2800, and the LU2510 in the range of 3440 - 3490. The market is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical risks on the supply - side, uncertain demand, and weak upstream crude oil prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is stable, but the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned to a discount for the first time in four months. The spot discount of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil narrowed to $4.75/ton on August 7 [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $406.63/ton with a basis of 182 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil it is $501.5/ton with a basis of 163 yuan/ton, showing that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 20.749 billion barrels, an increase of 470,000 barrels [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward - sloping [3]. - High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions, while low - sulfur main positions are long, with an increase in long positions [3]. - The closing price of crude oil continued to decline, and the fuel oil market is expected to operate weakly due to lack of terminal demand [3]. 3.2 Recent Multi - Short Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: There may be an intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $406.63/ton with a basis of 182 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is $501.5/ton with a basis of 163 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 20.749 billion barrels, an increase of 470,000 barrels [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No information provided. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory has fluctuated in recent months. In the week of August 6, it was 20.749 billion barrels, an increase of 470,000 barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].