棉花周报（8.4-8.8）-20250811

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which temporarily stopped falling and consolidated sideways. The ICAC 8 - month report and USDA 7 - month report provide different 2025/26 annual production and consumption data. Customs data shows that textile and clothing exports in July decreased year - on - year, and cotton imports in June decreased significantly year - on - year while cotton yarn imports increased slightly. The Sino - US trade negotiation has been postponed, and the textile export data in July is not ideal. Currently in the consumption off - season, the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear. The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the future [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 1) Previous Day Review This week, the main cotton contract switched to the 01 contract, which stopped falling and consolidated sideways. There are different data on cotton production, consumption, and inventory from various institutions. The Sino - US trade negotiation is postponed, and textile export data is not good [4]. 2) Daily Tips - Likely Positive Factors: Reduction of previous Sino - US mutual tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - Likely Negative Factors: Postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3) Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 4) Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (July): In 2024/25, the total global cotton production is 2578.3 million tons, with different production changes in various countries. Consumption is also different among countries, with a total of [not clearly stated]. Import and export volumes vary by country, and the global期末库存 is 1683.5 million tons [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2590 million tons, consumption is 2560 million tons,期末库存 is 1710 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents/pound [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is 625 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and期末库存 is 823 million tons. The domestic cotton 3128B average price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [13]. 5) Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.