大越期货纯碱周报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash futures continued the downward trend, with the closing price of the main contract SA2601 down 0.08% from the previous week, at 1332 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe decreased by 1.20% to 1235 yuan/ton. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has faded, and the market has returned to fundamentals. Supply is increasing as maintenance work is gradually completed and some enterprises are undergoing maintenance. Demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass has declined, and the inventory at soda ash plants is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of the soda ash market remain weak. With the fading of the "anti-involution" policy benefits, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the main futures contract decreased by 0.08% to 1332 yuan/ton, and the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped by 1.20% to 1235 yuan/ton. The main basis increased by 16.87% to -97 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1235 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decrease from the previous week [15]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method was 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has recovered from a historical low [18]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 85.41%, and it is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production was 74.46 tons, with heavy soda ash accounting for 42.34 tons, at a historical high. The weekly heavy soda ash production rate was 56.86% [21][23][25]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant expansions in soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity plans of 640, 180, and 750 tons respectively. The actual new production capacity in 2025 was 100 tons [26]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash was 90.69% [30]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate was stable at 75.19% [33]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduced production, and the daily melting volume in operation decreased significantly [36]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in national plants was 186.51 tons, a 3.86% increase from the previous week, and it was above the five-year average [39]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [40]. 6. Influence Factor Summary - Positive factors: The peak maintenance season in summer is approaching, and production will decline [5]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The production of heavy soda ash's downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has faded [6][8]. 7. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].