大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices showed a strong trend. At the beginning of the week, downstream procurement was decent, but as prices rose, trading volume became lighter. There was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs during the week, increasing supply. In the industrial chain, ore prices remained stable, and ferronickel prices rose slightly, with the cost line stabilizing and rebounding slightly. Stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly. New - energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations declined. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, while the main contract of stainless steel will run with a slightly upward trend [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Nickel Outlook: Nickel prices were strong this week. Downstream trading turned light as prices rose. Supply increased with the arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs. The long - term oversupply pattern persists. The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [8][9]. - Stainless - steel Outlook: The main contract of stainless steel will run with a slightly upward trend [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes: Nickel ore prices remained stable, with red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% at $56 and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% at $50, showing no change. Sulfuric acid nickel prices rose slightly, with battery - grade up 1.89% and electroplating - grade unchanged. Ferronickel prices were stable to rising, with low - grade ferronickel in Shandong unchanged at 3200 yuan/ton and high - grade up 0.54% to 925 yuan/nickel point. Electrolytic nickel prices increased by about 0.96% - 0.98%. Stainless - steel prices rose 0.82%, with 304 stainless steel at 13787.5 yuan/ton [13][14]. - Nickel Ore Market: Nickel ore prices were flat compared to last week, and freight rates decreased by $0.5/wet ton. On August 7, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 10.3334 million wet tons, up 3.92%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, up 10.68% month - on - month and down 9.21% year - on - year. Currently, the market is mostly in a wait - and - see mode, and with inventory piling up, nickel ore may face continued pressure [17]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market: Nickel prices fluctuated upward, and downstream trading became lighter. In July 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,151 tons, up 4.74% month - on - month and 24.57% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,010.151 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month and up 132.29% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [22][30][33]. - Ferronickel Market: Ferronickel prices were stable to rising. In July 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,900 tons of metal, down 1.69% month - on - month and 10.63% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 1.041 million tons, up 22.8% month - on - month and 50.0% year - on - year [44][47][50]. - Stainless - steel Market: Stainless - steel prices rose, with 304 stainless steel up 0.82%. In June, stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with 300 - series production down 2.28% month - on - month. On August 8, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.1063 million tons, down 0.49 million tons [57][62][69]. - New - energy Vehicle Production and Sales: In June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles respectively, up 26.4% and 26.7% year - on - year. In June, the total output of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, up 4.6% month - on - month and 51.4% year - on - year [74][79]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line chart, prices will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with little change in positions. The MACD green bar is shrinking, and the KDJ shows an upward trend. The support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective, and prices will move in a narrow range [82]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - Nickel Ore: Neutral to bearish. The ore market is quiet, and most players are in a wait - and - see mode [85]. - Ferronickel: Neutral to bearish. Ferronickel prices are rising slightly, and the cost line is rising slightly [85]. - Refined Nickel: Neutral. The long - term oversupply pattern remains, and social inventory has increased [85]. - Stainless - steel: Neutral. Costs have risen slightly, and inventory has decreased [85]. - New - energy: Neutral. Production data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has decreased [85].