建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The industry under research is the egg industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, egg prices dropped significantly. The peak - season spot price started to rise around July 10th this year, later than usual. Market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - stored eggs' release hit the market. The current correction in egg prices is about 0.5 yuan/jin on average, greater than the usual range of 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/jin, indicating high supply pressure [8] - Most产区 prices stabilized on Thursday and Friday this week. As it is still the summer peak season and there is an expectation of pre - holiday stockpiling in September, the spot price is expected to have a second wave of increase in August, but the upper limit has been adjusted downwards [8] - In the futures market, due to the sharp drop in the spot price last weekend, futures were notably weak in the first few trading days of this week. The near - month 09 contract hit a record low. The market has factored in the expectation of a second peak - season increase. The 09 contract is still at a premium of about 400 points over the spot average price. Considering packaging costs for delivery, it will face significant pressure when the spot price reaches around 3.6 yuan/jin [8] - If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Subsequently, the basis may be narrowed through the spot price rising while the futures price remains stable. The fourth - quarter contracts are also at historical lows, corresponding to a weak fundamental situation. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the spot's second increase but should avoid over - staying in the market due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3376, the opening price was 3393, the highest price was 3393, the lowest price was 3357, the closing price was 3362, down 14 points or 0.41%. The trading volume was 153,259, the open interest was 203,664, and the open interest increased by 862 [7] - For the 2510 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3288, the opening price was 3292, the highest price was 3304, the lowest price was 3253, the closing price was 3257, down 31 points or 0.94%. The trading volume was 98,643, the open interest was 205,141, and the open interest increased by 16,335 [7] - For the 2511 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3336, the opening price was 3340, the highest price was 3343, the lowest price was 3316, the closing price was 3326, down 10 points or 0.30%. The trading volume was 26,452, the open interest was 96,200, and the open interest increased by 917 [7] - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.90 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract declined by 0.41% [7] - Operation Suggestions: If the spot price stabilizes and rises next week as expected, futures may be slightly stronger. Bulls can participate in bottom - fishing for the fourth - quarter contracts but should operate in a phased manner due to the medium - term bearish fundamentals [8] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on the rise. As of the end of July, the national monthly inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.356 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] - The monthly output of day - old chicks in sample enterprises in July was about 39.98 million, less than that in June (40.75 million) and in the same period of 2024 (41.68 million). It is a moderately high monthly replenishment volume in the past eight years. Due to low breeding profits in the past two months, farmers' enthusiasm for expanding production has wavered, and this was the first year - on - year decrease in replenishment volume in July [9][10] - The culling volume of laying hens in the first three weeks as of August 7th was 13.71 million, 13.01 million, and 13.38 million respectively. The culling volume has been decreasing since June, with a decline greater than the seasonal average. As of August 7th, the average culling age was 506 days, one day earlier than last week and two days later than last month [10]