大越期货白糖周报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of white sugar switched to the 01 contract, which showed a weak trend and fell below the 5,600 mark. Currently, the price of the 01 contract is similar to the price of imported raw sugar after out - of - quota tariffs. The 01 contract is under short - term pressure to decline due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and a significant increase in out - of - quota imported sugar in July. It should be treated with a short - term bearish and oscillating mindset [4][5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the white sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window with the foreign sugar price below 17 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, the main contract of white sugar switched to the 01 contract, which was weak and fell below 5,600. StoneX adjusted the global sugar market supply surplus in the 25/26 season down by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - The 01 contract is under short - term pressure to decline due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and a significant increase in out - of - quota imported sugar in July. It should be treated with a short - term bearish and oscillating mindset [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 7.5 million tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons, and StoneX adjusts the surplus down to 3.04 million tons. Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season, reaching 199.174 million tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. - Domestic market data: The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6,000 yuan. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. From January 1, 2025, the tariff on imported syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20%, slightly lower than the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - Import data: In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,200 tons. The state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons [8]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.