永安期货有色早报-20250811

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Core Viewpoints - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of long domestic and short overseas positions in the remaining time of the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, in the short - term, hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and long domestic and short overseas positions; in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand [2]. - For zinc, in the short - term, it shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, so it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment; the long overseas and short domestic positions can continue to be held, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of inter - month long positions [5]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and in the short - term, it follows the anti - involution expectation, so pay attention to the later policy direction [11]. - For lead, it is expected that battery factories will replenish stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [12]. - For tin, it is recommended to short lightly at high prices in the short - term [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity, and in the long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at the low - level bottom [18]. Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices were supported around 78,000 yuan, and downstream pricing and stockpiling improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices were strong, trying to break through 79,000 yuan on Friday night [1]. - The downstream start - up and demand have support, the scrap - refined substitution effect works, the copper inventory accumulation trend is not strong, and there is no substantial negative in the overseas macro - level [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. In August, demand is in the seasonal off - season, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand has declined significantly [2]. - In August, inventory is expected to continue to increase slightly. Supply increase is limited, demand is acceptable, and aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small. Pay attention to the relaxation of the trade war [2]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, and some scattered orders have decreased, while the imported TC is rising slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized [5]. - On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and most spot markets except Shanghai have turned to discounts. Overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees, with a slight increase in the spot premium [5]. - Domestic social inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is declining rapidly, approaching the lowest level in nearly two years [5]. Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. On the inventory side, the nickel plate inventory in both domestic and overseas markets remains stable [8]. - The short - term fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies [8]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have passively reduced production, and some in the north are affected by the military parade. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand, and some inventory replenishment has increased due to the macro - environment [11]. - The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts remain stable [11]. Lead - This week, lead prices fell. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste batteries are in short supply due to the expansion of recycling plants, and the recycled lead maintains low - level operation. The concentrate supply has tightened, and the TC quotation is falling [12]. - On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, the battery start - up rate has increased slightly, and the market's expectation of the peak season has declined. The terminal consumption inventory reduction and lead ingot procurement are weak [12]. - The exchange inventory has reached a high of 70,000 tons, the recycled lead is holding prices, the refined - scrap price difference is +25, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 20, mainly for long - term contract supply [12]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore is at a low level, some domestic smelters have reduced production and are about to enter the maintenance period. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, but the recruitment is difficult, and the specific quantity depends on the August arrival [13]. - On the demand side, the demand for solder is inelastic, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaic is expected to decline. Domestic inventory is rising, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level with the risk of a short squeeze [13]. - The supply of small - brand tin ingots is tight, and the exchange inventory is mainly high - priced Yun - brand tin, with low downstream提货 willingness [13]. Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the resumption of production in Southwest China and Hesheng is stable, and the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state. If either reaches full production, the balance will quickly turn to surplus [16]. - In the long - term, the industrial silicon production capacity is still in serious surplus, the operating rate is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Currently, the core contradiction of lithium carbonate is the long - term over - capacity and the short - term resource - end compliance disturbance [18]. - With the approaching of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction after the production reduction of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine, and the mine shutdown indicates strong policy strength, so the short - term price has large upward elasticity [18]. - In the long - term, if the resource - end risk is resolved, the over - capacity pattern remains, and the price will continue to fluctuate at the low - level bottom [18].