需求表现良好，豆粕偏强震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, influenced by factors such as the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the weather in the US soybean - growing areas. The domestic soybean market is also affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [10][11]. - The domestic soybean meal market is likely to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term. The demand is good, but the high arrival of imported soybeans in August and the spot price discount limit the upside of the market. The market is mainly affected by the weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the Sino - US trade tariff game [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips - Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean futures are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills also stays high. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Long factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - growing areas [14]. - Short factors: High arrival of imported soybeans in August, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Long factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - Short factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend. The total consumption also increased steadily, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months - From January to July 2025, the US soybean harvest area, yield per unit, and output remained relatively stable, with some minor adjustments. The ending inventory, old - crop exports, and crushing volume also had certain changes [23]. US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 - The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth stages of US soybeans in 2024 were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, showing that the progress was generally affected by weather and other factors [24][25]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25 - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, reflecting the impact of weather and other factors on the production of soybeans in these regions [27][28][29]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content. 3.6 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure US Soybean Market - The US soybean market is currently affected by the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and relatively good weather. The market is oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, and the future trend is mainly determined by the weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [33]. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - Imported Soybean Arrival: The arrival of imported soybeans in August decreased from the high level, with an overall year - on - year increase [36]. - Oil Mill's Crushing and Inventory: The soybean inventory of oil mills increased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory remained basically flat. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills returned to a high level, and the short - term stocking demand increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [37][39][40]. - Soybean Meal Transaction: The downstream procurement in China decreased from the high level, and the pick - up volume remained high [44]. - Pig - Farming Inventory: The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently rose and then fell, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit recently decreased [46][48][50][52]. 3.7 Meal Market Structure - The soybean meal futures oscillated and rebounded, and the spot price followed. The spot discount remained at a high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly [58][60]. 3.8 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures are weakly oscillating, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a stage of technical adjustment, and the future trend needs new guidance [65]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures oscillated and rebounded, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the expected good domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a stage of technical rebound, but the upside space is limited, and the future trend needs new guidance [68]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the weather in the US soybean - growing areas, the progress of Sino - US trade relations and tariff negotiations, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [71]. - The second - most important factors are the domestic soybean meal demand, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [72]. - The third - most important factors are macro - factors and conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel conflicts [72].