工业硅周报：下游复产，有利于支撑工业硅需求及价格回升-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests considering buying industrial silicon futures at low prices if the price drops to the range of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. The main contract has shifted to SI2511, but investors are advised to control positions and manage risks in advance due to the high position in the 09 contract [3][4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Downstream复产 is beneficial for supporting the demand and price recovery of industrial silicon. In August, the industrial silicon market is expected to see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, approaching a tight - balance state. However, inventory and warehouse receipt pressures are starting to emerge. With the anti - involution policy and potential increases in raw material costs such as coal, the price center of industrial silicon is expected to move upwards [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - Upstream raw material prices are starting to rise, industrial silicon and silicon powder prices have declined, downstream aluminum alloy prices have increased, and organic silicon prices have decreased. Industrial silicon prices have decreased by 4 - 5% month - on - month. For example, as of August 8, 2025, the price of oxygen - blown Si5530 in East China was 9,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.64%; the price of Si4210 in East China was 9,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.43%; and the price of 99 - grade silicon in Xinjiang was 8,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5% [6][7][10]. 3.2 Supply Situation Analysis - In July 2025, industrial silicon production was about 338,300 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 30% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to July was 2.2103 million tons, a 20% year - on - year decrease. In August, supply is expected to increase slightly, mainly from the partial复产 of large enterprises in Xinjiang and the increase in the operating rate in Southwest China. The total weekly output of four regions was 45,970 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,510 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6,470 tons compared to the previous month, mainly due to the复产 in Xinjiang [29][31]. - Multiple local industrial silicon industry associations proposed initiatives to oppose involution, including not selling below full cost, not adding new furnaces or supporting new capacity, promoting new technologies to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and promoting the orderly exit of backward capacity. Although the market is not optimistic about capacity clearance and self - discipline, the overall price center of industrial silicon is expected to move upwards under the anti - involution policy. In 2025, there are still projects with a total capacity of over 1 million tons likely to be put into production, but more attention should be paid to capacity clearance [3][36]. 3.3 Demand Situation Analysis - Polysilicon: The price of polysilicon has been stable with a slight increase. The average price of SMM N - type re -投料 is maintained at 47,000 yuan/ton. In August, the production is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons. The weekly production has increased by 11% to 29,400 tons [38][39]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly production of silicon wafers has increased by 1.02GW to 12.02GW, a rise of about 9%, slightly lower than the increase rate of polysilicon [40]. - Organic silicon: After a fire at a large organic silicon enterprise, the operating rate has gradually increased, and the production is expected to recover to over 200,000 tons, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, which is putting downward pressure on prices [4]. - Aluminum alloy: The operating rate of aluminum alloy has stabilized, and the price has fluctuated upwards. In June, the production of aluminum alloy was stable with a slight increase, and exports also had a small increase. In June, the exports of industrial silicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all recovered, but organic silicon exports were still weaker than last year [65][78]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Analysis - Raw material prices have fallen to a low level but have not broken through the lowest point in the past 8 years and have started to rise recently. In August, the electricity price in the flood season has further decreased, and the overall electricity price center has moved downwards, but it is still in the medium - high range in the past 10 years. The cost of Si5530 is about 9,800 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the cost of Si4210 is about 10,000 - 12,200 yuan/ton [93][99][104]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Changes - The decline in industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts and factory - warehouse inventories has narrowed, and social inventories have started to rise. Industrial silicon futures warehouse receipts have decreased slightly by 41 lots to 50,475 lots, equivalent to 252,400 tons. Social inventories total 547,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons, and factory - warehouse inventories have decreased by 1,400 tons to 170,000 tons [4].