燃料油早报-20250811

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 spread rebounded to $5.5/ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the FU01 internal - external spread strengthened slightly to $2.5. The cracking spread of Singapore 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 spread rebounded slightly to $3.75/ton, and the LU11 internal - external spread oscillated around $8. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high for the same period, and arrivals rebounded this week. UAE's shipments rebounded significantly month - on - month, and net exports increased substantially. [6] - The divergence between the East and West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - oil pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy crude oil is the strongest. It is expected to converge in both directions later. [6] - This week, LU's weakness was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 decreased slightly, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Pay attention to the opportunity of the high - sulfur 380 EW spread to widen, and short - term short positions in LU should exit. [6] Group 3: Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -$1.52 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | +$0.76 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.29 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | +$6.27 | | VLSFO - G M1 | -$5.51 | | LGO - Brent M1 | $0.00 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$2.28 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | 380cst M1 | -$3.06 | | 180cst M1 | -$1.55 | | VLSFO M1 | -$1.64 | | GO M1 | +$1.06 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -$0.17 | | VLSFO - GO M1 | -$9.49 | [3] Spot Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FOB 380cst | - | | FOB VLSFO | - | | 380 Basis | - | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$0.1 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | -$1.7 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | FU 01 | -41 | | FU 05 | -42 | | FU 09 | -60 | | FU 01 - 05 | +1 | | FU 05 - 09 | +18 | | FU 09 - 01 | -19 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change from 2025/08/04 - 2025/08/08 | | ---- | ---- | | LU 01 | -45 | | LU 05 | -34 | | LU 09 | -78 | | LU 01 - 05 | -11 | | LU 05 - 09 | +44 | | LU 09 - 01 | -33 | [5]