芳烃橡胶早报-20250811

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the aromatics and rubber markets, including PTA, MEG, polyester staple fiber, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and styrene [2][6][9] Group 2: PTA Market Current Situation - PTA spot had an average daily trading basis of 2509(-18). Proximal开工 increased, polyester load rose slightly, inventory continued to accumulate, basis was weak, and spot processing fees were low. PX domestic开工 rose slightly, overseas had both maintenance and restarts,开工 decreased slightly, PXN strengthened, disproportionation and isomerization benefits remained stable, and the US - Asia aromatics spread rose slightly [2] Device Changes - Tainan Chemical had a 1.5 - million - ton unit under maintenance and a 1.2 - million - ton unit restarted; Ineos' 2.35 - million - ton unit reduced production by 20%; Jiaxing Petrochemical's 2.2 - million - ton unit was under maintenance [2] Weekly Outlook - With low TA processing fees, additional maintenance increased. Demand - side filament sales were weak, but further production cuts were difficult in the short term. Bottle - grade PET continued to destock at low开工. Overall, polyester开工 is expected to gradually stabilize and have upward elasticity, and supply - demand is expected to improve periodically. Attention should be paid to opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [2] Group 3: MEG Market Current Situation - MEG spot had a basis of around +77 for 09. Proximal domestic device restarts were postponed,开工 was stable, there were some unexpected overseas maintenance. With increased arrivals and stable shipments, port inventory was expected to accumulate. Downstream inventory levels increased, basis was stable, and oil - based profitability recovered [6] Device Changes - Inner Mongolia Tongliao's 300,000 - ton unit restarted; Shanxi Wonen's 300,000 - ton unit was under maintenance [6] Weekly Outlook - EG supply has postponed restarts and overseas unexpected maintenance. With low short - term inventory accumulation pressure, port inventory is expected to remain low. The situation is good and profitability is not low. In the far - month, with the return of maintenance and new device commissioning, inventory accumulation is expected. However, valuation is greatly affected by the subsequent evolution of the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of satellite plants [6] Group 4: Polyester Staple Fiber Market Current Situation - Spot price was around 6497, and the market basis was around - 20 for 09. Proximal Huaxi increased production,开工 rose slightly to 90.6%, sales were stable, and inventory continued to accumulate. Downstream yarn production was stable, raw material inventory increased, finished - product inventory decreased, and profitability improved slightly [6] Weekly Outlook - As downstream yarn finished - product inventory continues to decline, downstream开工 may increase. Although staple fiber supply may also increase, considering that the processing fee on the futures market is still in a low range, attention can be paid to opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [6] Group 5: Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber Market Current Situation - There were price increases in various rubber products. The national explicit inventory was stable at a relatively low level but did not show seasonal destocking. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [6] Today's Outlook - The main contradiction is the stable national explicit inventory without seasonal destocking and the rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price due to rainfall. The strategy is to wait and see [6] Group 6: Styrene Market Current Situation - There were price changes in raw materials and products. Styrene domestic profitability decreased, while EPS and PS domestic profitability increased [9]