大越期货豆粕早报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is suppressed by the good weather for US soybean planting recently and the high - yield of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the high - yield expectations of South American and domestic soybeans [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in July, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to a volatile pattern due to the critical period of US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still exists, and the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the Sino - US tariff war affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous high - yield expectation of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean futures, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 125, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 1043100 tons, a 4.48% increase from last week and a 22.5% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 191, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 6455900 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week and a 5.08% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - Soybeans: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [10].