大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,160 - 78,760. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals - Cost side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 69,521 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.92%, and the production profit is 1,349 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,368 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.51%, and the production results in a loss of 8,388 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - Demand side: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate last week was 94,598 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,559 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [8]. - Basis: On August 8th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5,060 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish signal [8]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,260 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 142,418 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Disk: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is a bullish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish signal [8]. - Expectation: In July 2025, the production volume of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production volume for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may decrease, and the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily - on - daily increase but is lower than the historical average [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price changes: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have shown different degrees of increase or remained stable compared with the previous values [14]. - Supply - side data: The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly operating rate increased by 5.36%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% [17]. - Demand - side data: There are data on the monthly production, export, and inventory of lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and ternary materials, as well as data on the monthly power battery loading volume, new energy vehicle production, sales, and export volume [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and production trends: There are historical data on the price of lithium ore, the production volume of spodumene mines in China, the total production volume of domestic lepidolite, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore [23]. - Supply - demand balance table: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and operating rate trends: There are data on the weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling materials), as well as the weekly and monthly production volume trends [28]. - Supply - demand balance table: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from July 2024 to July 2025 is shown, including demand, export, import, production, and balance data [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization and production trends: Data on the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, the monthly operating rate by source (causticization and smelting), the smelting capacity, production volume, and export volume are provided [36]. - Supply - demand balance table: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, including demand, export, import, production, and balance data [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit data of various lithium compounds are provided, including the cost - profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and the cost - profit of recycling different types of lithium - containing black powder to produce lithium carbonate, as well as the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, etc. [42][45][48] 3.7 Inventories - There are data on the inventory of lithium carbonate (including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory by source) and the inventory of lithium hydroxide (monthly inventory by source) [50]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Batteries - Price and production trends: Data on the price trend of batteries, monthly cell production volume, monthly power battery loading volume, power cell monthly shipment volume, and lithium battery export volume are provided [53]. - Inventory data: There are data on the inventory of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries) and the energy - storage bid - winning volume [56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursors - Price, cost, and production trends: Data on the price of ternary precursors, cost - profit, processing fees, capacity utilization rate, capacity, and monthly production volume are provided [59]. - Supply - demand balance table: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, including export, demand, import, production, and balance data [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Materials - Price, cost - profit, and production trends: Data on the price of ternary materials, cost - profit trends, weekly operating rate, capacity, and production volume are provided, as well as data on processing fees, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price, cost - profit, and production trends: Data on the price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, production cost of iron phosphate, cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium, capacity, monthly operating rate, monthly production volume, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory are provided [69][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production, sales, and export trends: Data on the production volume (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric, and total new energy vehicles), export volume, sales volume (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric, and total sales), sales penetration rate, retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles are provided [77][81].