大越期货沥青期货早报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The overall demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Market outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3454 - 3502 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The supply pressure is still high, but refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is weak, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish [10]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and the cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3454 - 3502 [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Supply data: The planned production volume in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The sample capacity utilization rate decreased, and the sample enterprise production decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased [8]. - Demand data: The开工率 of various types of asphalt is mostly lower than the historical average level, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost data: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the weekly delayed coking profit increased. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and the cost support weakened [9]. - Market data: The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract futures closed below the MA20. The main position is net long, but the long position decreased. The spot price in Shandong on August 8 was 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 282 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10][11]. - Inventory data: The social inventory was 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory was 0.679 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27% [11].