大越期货菜粕早报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2440 - 2500. The short - term demand is good, and technical buying supports the market. The low opening rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the price. However, the increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed and the lack of clarity on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports limit the upside potential. The price is likely to return to range - bound trading in the short term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and demand balance sheets: Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply and demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023 are provided, including data on harvest area, output, supply, demand, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [24][25]. - Price and trading volume: The trading average price, trading volume, and price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from July 30 to August 8 are presented. The futures and spot prices of rapeseed meal from July 31 to August 8 are also provided, including the prices of the near - month contract 2509, the main contract 2601, and the spot price in Fujian [13][15]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 19,000 tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 15,100 tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year compared to 34,000 tons in the same period last year. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts increased from 0 on July 30 to 9063 on August 8 [9][16]. - Aquatic product data: Information on Chinese aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports is provided. Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [32][34][36]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions of rapeseed meal have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rising. Good demand and technical buying support the market. The low opening rate of oil mills and low inventory support the price. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot has entered the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant. The price is likely to remain range - bound in the short term. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are bullish for rapeseed meal in the short term, but the bullish effect may be limited as no additional tariffs have been imposed on rapeseed imports. The overall view is neutral. - Basis: The spot price is 2660, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish. - Inventory: The inventory situation is bullish as described above. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards, which is bullish. - Main positions: The increase in main short positions and the inflow of funds are bearish. - Expectation: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices may rise and then fall due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Coupled with the influence of soybean meal, the price is likely to return to range - bound trading [9].