建信期货贵金属日评-20250811

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: August 11, 2025 - Research Team: Macro and Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Fed's potential rate cut and Trump's new policies support the precious metals market, but there are also uncertainties such as Fed officials' stances and geopolitical situations. Gold's long - and mid - term bull markets are supported by various factors, but its volatility has increased. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term view and medium - low positions, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's nomination of a new Fed governor raises the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to 86.6%, which supports the precious metals' upward movement. However, some Fed officials believe that a September rate cut is not certain, and the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict under US pressure causes London gold to face resistance around $3400/ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and use medium - low positions for trading [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change % | Open Interest | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 786.70 | 790.19 | 785.20 | 789.42 | 0.35% | 441,940 | 3990 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9,275 | 9,334 | 9,258 | 9,295 | 0.22% | 784,183 | - 10841 | | Gold T + D | 782.02 | 784.45 | 778.80 | 783.50 | 0.19% | 213,736 | 4684 | | Silver T + D | 9,224 | 9,287 | 9,210 | 9,249 | 0.27% | 3,528,966 | 24404 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have reduced gold's hedging and allocation demand, Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks, along with the deterioration of the US job market, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, the silver price fluctuated greatly. The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the mid - term bull market is supported by Trump's policies and the expectation of a Fed rate cut. However, the high price and P/E ratio of gold have increased its volatility. It is expected that London gold will continue to move within the range in the short term. Long - term investors are advised to participate with medium - low positions, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 2. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and the US have agreed to hold a Putin - Trump summit in the coming days, and Zelensky has held talks with European leaders on the peace process [17]. - Trump has nominated Milan as a temporary Fed governor and is still looking for candidates for a long - term Fed seat. Fed Governor Waller is the favorite to become the next Fed chairman [17]. - The US and China may extend the tariff truce by 90 days. Trump may impose secondary tariffs on Indian goods and is considering tariffs on China [17]. - The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but four of the nine policymakers oppose it, indicating that the continuous rate cuts may be near the end [17]. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that it is too early to promise a rate cut as key data has not been released and inflation is expected to rise in the next few months [18].