工业硅期货周报2025年08月04日-08月08日-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 11 - contract of industrial silicon showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 2.59%. It is expected that the supply schedule will increase next month, demand recovery will be at a low level, and cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment [4][5]. - The 11 - contract of polysilicon also showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 4.72%. It is predicted that the supply schedule will continue to increase next week, demand will show continuous recovery, cost support will remain stable, and the disk is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The opening price on Monday was 8490 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 8710 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.59% [4]. - Supply: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 84,000 tons, a 3.70% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 35,105 tons, a 7.60% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 53.8%, 1.19 percentage points higher than last month [4]. - Demand: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 78,000 tons, a 11.43% increase from the previous week. In different sectors, polysilicon inventory is high, organic silicon is in a profitable state with a high start - up rate, and the aluminum alloy inventory is high [5]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang is 2888 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the dry season has increased [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 547,000 tons, a 1.30% increase; the sample enterprise inventory is 170,050 tons, a 0.81% decrease; the main port inventory is 118,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The opening price on Monday was 48,500 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 50,790 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.72% [7]. - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase from the previous week. The predicted output in August is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from last month [7]. - Demand: The silicon wafer output last week was 12.02GW, a 9.27% increase; the battery cell output in July was 57.26GW, a 1.90% increase; the component output in July was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase. The production of silicon wafers and battery cells is currently in a loss state, while component production is profitable [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,500 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The report presents the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [13][14]. - Inventory: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [16]. - Output and Capacity Utilization: The report shows the trends of industrial silicon output and capacity utilization in different regions and specifications over time [20][21][22]. - Component Cost: It presents the trends of main component costs such as electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and reducing agent prices in the production of industrial silicon [25]. - Cost - Sample Region: The cost - profit trends of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang are shown [27]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations [29][32][54]. - Downstream Industries: - Organic Silicon: It includes the trends of DMC production, capacity utilization, price, profit, cost, import - export, and inventory [35][37][40]. - Aluminum Alloy: The report shows the trends of waste aluminum recycling, social inventory, import of aluminum scrap, import - export of unforged aluminum alloy, price, cost - profit, production, start - up rate, and inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [43][46]. - Polysilicon: It presents the trends of polysilicon cost, price, inventory, production, start - up rate, demand, and the supply - demand balance. It also includes the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, accessories, and the cost - profit of components [51][54][57][60][63][66][69]. 3. Technical Analysis - Industrial Silicon (SI): The 11 - contract of the SI main showed an upward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving averages, it is expected to have a bullish volatile adjustment next week [73][74]. - Polysilicon (PS): The 11 - contract of the PS main showed an upward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving averages, it is expected to have a bearish volatile adjustment next week [75][76].