菜粕周报8.4-8.8：需求良好支撑，菜粕偏强震荡-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal [8]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as low - level import rapeseed inventory and China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, causing it to rise and then fall. Driven by soybean meal, the price of rapeseed meal will return to range - bound trading in the short term [8]. - The short - term supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both strong. Affected by the low - level inventory of imported rapeseed and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may fluctuate within a range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Fundamentally, rapeseed meal is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed imports limits the positive impact. The basis shows a discount to futures, the inventory has increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, the main short positions have increased, and the price is expected to return to range - bound trading [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market. The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, and China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, along with the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, have uncertain future results. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly, and the geopolitical conflict still has the possibility of rising, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Positive factors include China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Negative factors include the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The import volume of rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has fallen to a low level, the rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and the rapeseed crushing volume has increased slightly. Aquatic product prices have small fluctuations, and the rapeseed meal price has rebounded with the main contract changing months and the spot changing from discount to premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has small fluctuations [19][21][33]. - The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, output, supply, demand, etc. [16][18]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions of rapeseed meal have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has rebounded and is expected to return to range - bound trading in the short and medium term. The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a high level, and the MACD is rebounding with short - term strong operation. Overall, rapeseed meal is expected to be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the subsequent trend depends on policies and soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - The most important concerns are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. Secondary concerns include domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, as well as the inventory of rapeseed meal in oil mills and downstream procurement. Other concerns include macro factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45][46].