大越期货2025-08-11原油早报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Trump and Putin will meet this week, with news suggesting that the President of Ukraine will also participate. Market geopolitical concerns have weakened, and oil prices have declined below the lower limit of the previous trading range. However, there are still uncertainties in the subsequent negotiations. The market already anticipates a cease - fire, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Short - term trading is expected to be in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Trump will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska to discuss ending the Ukraine war. Since the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged last month, some policymakers are showing more concerns about the labor market and hinting at a willingness to cut rates in September. The overall fundamentals are considered neutral [3]. - Basis: On August 8, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $68.76 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.81 per barrel. The basis was 12.62 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. - Inventory: For the week ending August 1, API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 4.233 million barrels (expected: 1.845 million barrels), and EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected: 0.591 million barrels). Cushing region inventory increased by 0.453 million barrels. As of August 8, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels. Overall, the inventory situation is bullish [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is a bearish signal [3]. - Main Position: As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased, which is a bullish signal [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump will meet with Putin on August 15 in Alaska to discuss a long - term peace plan for Ukraine. Trump said that the US and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement on the Ukraine issue [5]. - Since the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged last month, some policymakers are more concerned about the labor market. Financial markets expect the policy rate to drop by at least 0.5 percentage points by the end of the year [5]. 3. Long - Short Focus - Bullish Factors: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - Bearish Factors: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariffs has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased by $0.16 (0.24%), WTI crude oil remained unchanged, SC crude oil decreased by 7.90 (-1.57%), and Oman crude oil decreased by $0.80 (-1.15%) [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent increased by $0.18 (0.26%), WTI remained unchanged, Oman crude oil decreased by $0.62 (-0.89%), Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.65 (-0.99%), and Dubai crude oil decreased by $0.83 (-1.20%) [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories in the US showed different trends in recent weeks. As of August 1, API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [10][14]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of July 29, the net long position increased. As of August 5, the net long position decreased by 14,194 [17]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of July 29, the net long position increased. As of August 5, the net long position decreased by 20,375 [19].