永安期货集运早报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the 10 - contract and maintain the logic of shorting at high levels [2][30]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2071.0 with a - 0.08% change; EC2510 was at 1436.0 with a 1.10% change; EC2512 was 1760.0 with a - 0.18% change; EC2602 was 1530.4 with a 1.66% change; EC2604 was 1353.0 with a 0.46% change; EC2606 was 1490.5 with a 0.17% change [2][30]. - Volume and Open Interest: For example, EC2510 had a yesterday's volume of 56447 and an open interest of 56602 with an increase of 3006 [2][30]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: EC2508 - 2510 spread was - 17.3 compared to the previous day and - 65.5 week - on - week; EC2510 - 2512 spread was 18.8 compared to the previous day and - 68.6 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 spread was - 28.2 compared to the previous day and 22.6 week - on - week [2][30]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Indexes (European Line) - SCFI: Updated every Friday, on 2025/8/8, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period and - 1.87% for the next - period change [2][30]. - CCFI: On 2025/8/8, it was 1799.05, up 0.53% from the previous period and 0.13% for the next - period change [2][30]. - NCFI: Updated weekly, on 2025/8/8, it was 1257.71, down 8.37% from the previous period and - 3.53% for the next - period change [2][30]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotes - Week33 had an average quote of about 3150 US dollars (equivalent to around 2200 points on the disk). In Week34, quotes from various shipping companies dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The PA Alliance was at 2700 US dollars, MSK at 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance at 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3][31]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation - In the second week of August (Week33), the cargo - receiving situations of different alliances varied, with MSK performing well, OA being average, and PA being poor. In Week34, cargo - receiving significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in Week35, and OA added a suspension in Week39. The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 were 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU after considering all TBN as suspensions [2][30]. 3.5 Related News - On 8/8, the Israeli security cabinet approved the IDF's plan to take over Gaza City and agreed to the "five major principles" for a cease - fire. On 8/9, sources said that Qatar and the US were formulating a comprehensive cease - fire agreement plan for the Gaza Strip [4][32].