《农产品》日报-20250811
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-11 07:47
  1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Pig Industry - Pig spot prices are weakly declining. The current supply - demand situation is weak. In August, the group farms' slaughter is expected to continue to recover, and there is also a need to slaughter the large pigs previously held by small farmers. The short - term pig price is still not optimistic, and the spot is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The near - month 09 contract has strong upward pressure, while the far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies. [2] 2.2 Meal Industry - The overall trend of US soybeans is weak, and the Sino - US trade relations have no positive news, but the yield performance is good. The Brazilian premium is rising, which supports the domestic import cost. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously rising, with high arrivals and high operating rates in the short term. After October, the continuity of soybean arrivals is questionable. It is expected that US soybeans will have strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downward space for domestic soybean meal is relatively limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held, but the strong performance of oils may limit the increase of meals. [7] 2.3 Corn Industry - Affected by the weak market sentiment and the pressure of new grain listing in some areas, the shipping enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price is running weakly. The demand side is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is continuously digested with general procurement enthusiasm. Wheat has an advantage in substituting for corn, squeezing the demand for corn. The tight remaining grain supports the price, but the weak market sentiment remains. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, and the supply pressure is still obvious. [10] 2.4 Oil Industry No specific views are provided in the given text for the oil industry other than price data. 2.5 Sugar Industry - ISMA predicts that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 18% year - on - year, which has put downward pressure on raw sugar prices. Brazil's sugar production has not increased cumulatively year - on - year despite a high sugar - making ratio. The expectations of high yields in India and Thailand are strong, and attention should be paid to the weather. It is expected that it is difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below the previous low in the short term, but the overall trend is bearish. With increased imports and the entry of processed sugar into the market, the price is under pressure. Terminal demand is average, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bearish trend. [16] 2.6 Cotton Industry - The spot basis is temporarily firm on the supply side, and there is a marginal improvement in the industrial downstream, but the amplitude is not large. There is some support for cotton prices in the short term, but the downstream confidence is still insufficient. As the new cotton is about to be listed, the expected increase in production in the new year will bring pressure. In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed. [17] 2.7 Egg Industry - Egg prices have reached a phased low, and downstream traders and food factories may replenish stocks at low prices, which will increase demand and support price increases. However, the high inventory, sufficient supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs may suppress the increase in egg prices. The overall trend of egg futures is still bearish, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - position funds. [20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 26.97% from the previous value. The price of the pig 2511 contract is 14180 yuan, up 80 yuan or 0.57%. The price of the pig 2601 contract is 14415 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.14%. The 11 - 1 spread is - 235 yuan, up 60 yuan or 20.34%. The position of the main contract is 60194, up 1.00%. [2] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - Spot prices in various regions are declining, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Liaoning. [2] 3.1.3 Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 137328, down 1.41%. The weekly white - strip price remains unchanged. The weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, down 3.70%. The weekly sow price is 32.53 yuan, up 0.03%. The weekly slaughter weight is 127.80 kg, down 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit is 45 yuan/head, up 2.92%. The weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 134 yuan, down 14.87%. The monthly number of fertile sows is 40430000 heads, up 0.02%. [2] 3.2 Meal Industry 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2940 yuan, up 0.68%. The price of the M2601 contract is 3094 yuan, up 0.52%. The basis of M2601 is - 154 yuan, up 2.53%. The spot basis quotation is m2509 - 110. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans for the October shipment is 104 yuan, down 5.5%. The warehouse receipts are unchanged at 10950. [7] 3.2.2 Rapeseed Meal - The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2660 yuan, up 1.14%. The price of the RM2601 contract is 2506 yuan, up 1.50%. The basis of RM2601 is 154 yuan, down 4.35%. The spot basis quotation in Guangdong is rm09 - 140. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the November shipment is 339 yuan, up 14.53%. The warehouse receipts are 9063, up 129.27%. [7] 3.2.3 Soybeans - The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged. The price of the main soybean contract is 4109 yuan, down 0.60%. The basis of the main soybean contract is - 149 yuan, up 14.37%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3660 yuan, unchanged. The price of the main soybean No.2 contract is 3749 yuan, up 0.21%. The basis of the main soybean No.2 contract is - 89 yuan, down 9.88%. The warehouse receipts are unchanged at 13573. [7] 3.2.4 Spreads - The soybean meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) is - 49 yuan, down 4.26%. The rapeseed meal inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 267 yuan, down 1.11%. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market is 2.93, down 0.91%. The oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.75, down 0.67%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market is 280 yuan, down 3.45%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the 2509 contract is 588 yuan, down 3.45%. [7] 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Corn - The price of the corn 2509 contract is 2255 yuan, down 0.53%. The FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 45 yuan, up 36.36%. The 9 - 1 spread is 71 yuan, down 1.39%. The bulk grain price at Shekou is 2390 yuan, unchanged. The north - south trade profit is 19 yuan, unchanged. The CIF price is 1926 yuan, down 0.06%. The import profit is 464 yuan, up 0.24%. The number of remaining vehicles in the morning at Shandong deep - processing plants is 196, up 20.25%. The position is 1711288, up 1.10%. The warehouse receipts are 144037, down 1.21%. [10] 3.3.2 Corn Starch - The price of the corn starch 2509 contract is 2642 yuan, down 0.68%. The spot price in Changchun is 2710 yuan, unchanged. The spot price in Weifang is 2950 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 68 yuan, up 36.00%. The 9 - 1 spread is 90 yuan, down 4.26%. The starch - corn spread on the futures market is 387 yuan, down 1.53%. The profit of Shandong starch is - 108 yuan, up 8.47%. The position is 296180, up 5.28%. The warehouse receipts are 7450, unchanged. [10] 3.4 Oil Industry 3.4.1 Soybean Oil - The current price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8610 yuan, down 0.23%. The price of the Y2601 contract is 8400 yuan, down 0.07%. The basis of Y2601 is 210 yuan, down 6.25%. The spot basis quotation in Jiangsu for August is 09 + 180, unchanged. The warehouse receipts are 20370, up 32.53%. [14] 3.4.2 Palm Oil - The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9030 yuan, up 0.33%. The price of the P2509 contract is 8980 yuan, up 0.34%. The basis of P2509 is 50 yuan, unchanged. The spot basis quotation in Guangdong for August is 09 + 100, unchanged. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for September is 9357.9 yuan, up 0.66%. The import profit at Guangzhou Port for September is - 378 yuan, down 9.01%. The warehouse receipts are 570, unchanged. [14] 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil - The current price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9670 yuan, up 0.42%. The price of the 01509 contract is 9574 yuan, up 0.82%. The basis of 01509 is 96 yuan, down 28.36%. The spot basis quotation in Jiangsu for August is 09 + 80, down 20. The warehouse receipts are 3487, unchanged. [14] 3.4.4 Spreads - The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 12 yuan, down 57.14%. The palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is - 20 yuan, down 25.00%. The rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) is 13 yuan, up 116.67%. The soybean - palm oil spread in the spot market is - 420 yuan, down 13.51%. The soybean - palm oil spread of the 2509 contract is - 580 yuan, down 6.62%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the spot market is 1060 yuan, up 6.00%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spread of the 2509 contract is 1174 yuan, up 7.71%. [14] 3.5 Sugar Industry 3.5.1 Futures Market - The price of the sugar 2601 contract is 5573 yuan, down 0.21%. The price of the sugar 2509 contract is 5680 yuan, up 0.23%. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.27 cents/pound, up 1.50%. The 1 - 9 spread is - 107 yuan, down 30.49%. The position of the main contract is 300976, up 86.59%. The warehouse receipts are 18545, down 0.38%. The valid forecasts are 0. [16] 3.5.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming are 5950 yuan and 5825 yuan respectively, down 1.33% and 0.09%. The Nanning basis is 270 yuan, down 25.62%. The Kunming basis is 145 yuan, down 11.04%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4398 yuan, down 0.79%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota is 5584 yuan, down 0.82%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning is - 1552 yuan, up 2.82%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning is - 366 yuan, up 8.50%. [16] 3.5.3 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales are 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi are 51.00 million tons, down 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate is 72.59%, up 9.70%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 71.85%, up 8.11%. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 9.56%. The industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi is 181.97 million tons, down 12.23%. The industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan is 86.30 million tons, up 0.29%. The sugar imports are 13.00 million tons, up 160.00%. [16] 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The price of the cotton 2509 contract is 13640 yuan, down 0.22%. The price of the cotton 2601 contract is 13800 yuan, down 0.25%. The price of the ICE US cotton main contract is 66.36 cents/pound, down 0.84%. The 9 - 1 spread is - 160 yuan, up 3.03%. The position of the main contract is 260796, down 4.17%. The warehouse receipts are 8329, down 1.59%. The valid forecasts are 348, unchanged. [17] 3.6.2 Spot Market - The arrival price in Xinjiang for 3128B cotton is 15063 yuan, down 0.17%. The CC Index for 3128B is 15178 yuan, down 0.09%. The FC Index for M: 1% is 13320 yuan, down 0.52%. The difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1423 yuan, up 0.28%. The difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1263 yuan, up 0.72%. The difference between the CC Index for 3128B and the FC Index for M: 1% is 1828 yuan, up 3.22%. [17] 3.6.3 Industry Situation - The commercial inventory is 218.98 million tons, down 13.9%. The industrial inventory is 89.84 million tons, up 1.8%. The imports are 3.00 million tons, down 25.0%. The bonded area inventory is 30.10 million tons, down 8.0%. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is 0.80%, down 57.9%. The inventory days of yarn are 27.67 days, down 2.4%. The inventory days of gray cloth are 36.14 days, down 3.0%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang
《农产品》日报-20250811 - Reportify