《特殊商品》日报-20250811

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Supply side is affected by labor return in Cambodia and disrupted rubber tapping in Thailand, with expected stronger raw material prices. Demand side shows good replacement demand, and market trading activity is expected to increase. Winter snow tire orders are expected to rise in the next period [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber price decreased by 0.69%, while Thai standard mixed rubber price increased by 0.35%. Cup rubber price increased slightly, and glue price remained unchanged. Basis of whole milk and non - standard price difference changed [1]. - Inter - month Spread: 1 - 5 spread increased by 20.83%, and 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.28%, while 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [1]. - Production and Consumption Data: In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23%, Indonesia's decreased by 12.03%, India's increased by 30.82%, and China's increased slightly. Tire production and export data also changed.开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased slightly [1]. - Inventory Change: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.91%, and Shanghai Futures Exchange's factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 6.34%. Warehouse entry and exit rates of dry glue in Qingdao also changed [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For soda ash, it is in an obvious oversupply pattern, with weakening spot sales. Future demand has no growth expectation, and inventory may face more pressure. For glass, the market sentiment has declined, and the downstream demand is weak. The industry needs capacity clearance [3]. Summary by Directory - Glass - related Price and Spread: Prices in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, while that in Central China decreased by 0.83%. Futures prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased [3]. - Soda Ash - related Price and Spread: Prices in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged, while that in Northwest China decreased by 2.78%. Futures prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased [3]. - Supply: Soda ash's operating rate increased by 6.40%, and weekly output increased by 6.42%. Float glass and photovoltaic glass melting volumes remained unchanged [3]. - Inventory: Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.95%, soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 3.86%, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 16.40% [3]. - Real Estate Data: New construction area decreased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, spot prices rose due to reduced available sources and trader reluctance to sell, and the new outer - market quotation increased. However, weak demand leads to low acceptance of price increases by downstream and low willingness of traders to take delivery. The supply pressure may increase this week, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 850 [4]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Price: Futures prices of logs 2509, 2511, and 2501 changed slightly. Spot prices of some radiation pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased. Outer - market quotation increased by 1.75% [4]. - Cost: Import theoretical cost increased by 2% [4]. - Supply: Port shipping volume increased by 2.12%, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 8.62% [4]. - Inventory: National coniferous log inventory remained unchanged, Shandong's inventory increased by 1.04%, and Jiangsu's decreased by 5.55% [4]. - Demand: Weekly demand increased slightly, with national average daily outbound volume increasing by 0.01 million cubic meters [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Under the anti - involution policy, the price center of industrial silicon is expected to move up. In August, supply and demand both increase, and it may reach a tight balance. But inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are emerging. The main price range is expected to be 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips when the price drops to 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: Prices of different types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, while basis decreased [5]. - Inter - month Spread: Some spreads changed, such as 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 137.50% [5]. - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production increased by 3.23%, with different changes in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC output decreased, while polysilicon and recycled aluminum alloy output increased. Industrial silicon export volume increased by 22.77% [5]. - Inventory Change: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly, while social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In early August, polysilicon futures prices rose. In August, supply and demand both increase, but supply growth is larger, with inventory accumulation pressure. If there is new progress in capacity integration or clearance, prices may rise again; otherwise, they may fluctuate and decline. The spread between PS2511 and PS2512 is expected to narrow [6]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: Spot prices of N - type polysilicon and related products remained mostly unchanged, while basis of N - type materials decreased [6]. - Futures Price and Inter - month Spread: The main contract price increased by 1.36%. Some inter - month spreads changed significantly, such as the decrease of the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract by 5800.00% [6]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production data changed. Polysilicon import volume decreased, and export volume increased [6]. - Inventory Change: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased [6].