Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber产区 is in the tapping season. In the Yunnan产区, continuous rainfall has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high - fluctuating. In the Hainan产区, increased precipitation has restricted tapping in some areas, leading to a month - on - month decrease in raw material output. Supported by the rise in futures and spot markets, some processors are more eager to purchase raw materials. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao continues to decline. In terms of demand, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly last week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,550 - 16,150 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,755 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,620 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 985 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,135 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,913 lots, up 10,616 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 55,758 lots, up 33,715 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 38,630 lots, down 4,018 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,519 lots, down 1,800 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 175,440 tons, down 840 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 42,840 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,780 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 1,055 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,170 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,670 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50 yuan/ton, down 173 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 61.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.45 days, up 0.81 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.05%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.22%, down 0.51 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.68%, down 0.26 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (August 10 - 16, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia has increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, etc., and the rainfall in most other areas is in a low - to - medium state, which has an increased impact on tapping operations. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which also has an increased impact on tapping operations [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of August 10, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons or 1.89% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory is 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory is 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao's natural rubber sample decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.25 percentage points. As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250811
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-11 13:27