瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The increase in the number of pigs sold by breeders puts pressure on the spot price. However, due to the policy - guided reduction in long - term supply pressure marginally, which provides more support for the far - month contracts, combined with the expectation of improved future demand, the futures price of the live hog 2511 contract performs stronger than the spot price, showing a slightly bullish and volatile trend. It is recommended to try long positions on dips [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 14,140 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position is 62,301 lots, up 2,107 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, down 380 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 20,292 lots, down 998 lots [2]. Spot Market - The live hog prices in Henan Zhumadian, Guangdong Yunfu remain unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton and 15,300 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Jilin Siping rises 100 yuan to 13,100 yuan/ton. The main live hog basis is - 540 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, up 40,000 heads [2]. Industry Situation - The month - on - month CPI is 0.1%, up 0.2 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,394.9 yuan/ton, down 0.69 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 930.68, down 1.18; the monthly feed output is 27,621,000 tons, up 981,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 134.14 yuan/head, down 17.36 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs is 45.13 yuan/head, up 1.28 yuan; the monthly pork import volume is 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.9 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, up 1390,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 1.294 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the daily national live hog output of key breeding enterprises was 275,875 heads, up 3.67% from Friday. The live hog 2611 contract closed flat on Monday. On the supply side, the rhythm of weight - reducing sales by breeders has accelerated recently, increasing market supply. The demand side has seen a slight increase in the slaughterhouse operation rate due to sufficient pig supply and partial demand recovery, but high temperatures still suppress pork purchasing willingness, limiting the recovery. The long - term supply pressure is expected to decrease marginally due to policy guidance, and the demand is expected to improve significantly during the back - to - school season and double - festival stocking period [2].