瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250811

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and gradually recovering demand, with large fluctuations in lithium prices and a gradually improving industry outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the red column is expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a slightly bullish trend and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 4,040 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 128,116 hands, up 39,445 hands; the position of the main contract is 317,676 hands, down 3,030 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 2,000 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZFE is 18,829 hands/ton, up 2,386 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,500 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,440 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 0 US dollars/ton, down 780 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,250 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,448 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 52%, up 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 129,200 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 30,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.15 million yuan/ton, up 0.13 million yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 225,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 121,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 126,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.27 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 52%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,268,000 vehicles, down 2,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,329,000 vehicles, up 22,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 44.32%, up 0.33 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 6,937,000 vehicles, up 1,993,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 205,000 vehicles, down 7,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.06 million vehicles, up 455,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.59%, up 1.13 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.38%, up 1.21 percentage points [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 119,052 contracts, up 24,224 contracts; the total put position is 52,618 contracts, up 21,765 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 44.2%, up 11.6617 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46, up 0.0566 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo mining end has determined to stop production, and relevant people said there is no short - term resumption plan. The national subsidy is directly sent to towns, and the first national event of the "Thousands of Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new energy vehicle consumption season of the Ministry of Commerce was launched in Xiaogan, Hubei on August 9, with a maximum subsidy of over 22,000 yuan. The "Big and Beautiful" bill stipulates that the US government will no longer provide tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30. In July, the sales volume of electric vehicles accounted for 9.1% of the total sales volume of all passenger vehicles in that month, setting a new high. In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, up from a 0.1% decline in the previous month, and was flat year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with the same decline as the previous month [2]