锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On August 11, the silicon iron 2509 contract was reported at 5830, up 1.15%. After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The cost of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and the overall demand for steel remains weak. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [3]. - On August 11, the manganese silicon 2509 contract was reported at 6100, up 1.09%. The steel industry has invested 1.2 trillion yuan in "capacity replacement" in the past decade. Production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 10.4 tons, and the downstream hot metal production is at a high level. Pay attention to the steel mill's tender price in August. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 6100 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5830 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 622,609 lots, down 602 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 469,024 lots, up 6402 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 93,552 lots, up 1750 lots; the net position of the top 20 in silicon iron was - 27,363 lots, down 1945 lots [2]. - The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 98 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 180 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 75,707, down 338; SF warehouse receipts were 19,619, down 27 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5900 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B was 5630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. - The manganese silicon index average was 5833 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 200 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan [2]. - The SM main contract basis was - 200 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 448.9 tons, up 10.4 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 43.43%, up 1.25%; the silicon iron enterprise operating rate was 34.32%, up 0.56% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 195,825 tons, up 5005 tons; silicon iron supply was 109,100 tons, up 4700 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 161,500 tons, down 2500 tons; silicon iron manufacturer inventory was 7.17 tons, up 0.62 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; silicon iron inventory days in national steel mills was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon in five major steel types was 125,200 tons, up 1485 tons; the demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 20,266.3 tons, up 344.3 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.07%, down 0.15% [2]. - Crude steel production was 8318.4 tons, down 336.1 tons [2]. 4. Industry News - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline remained at 3.6% [3]. - As of the 7th, the US trade - weighted average tariff rate on all global products rose to 20.11%, significantly higher than 2.44% at the beginning of the year [3]. - US President Trump announced a meeting with Russian President Putin in Alaska on the 15th to discuss the Ukraine crisis [3]. - Beijing has further optimized housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy an unlimited number of houses outside the Fifth Ring Road [3]. - In the past year, at least a dozen provinces and cities have issued incentive policies or established state - owned asset M&A funds, which have transformed from "fund providers" to "industry integrators" [3].