瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mostly declined on Monday, with the main contract EC2510 down 2.71% and the far - month contracts down 1 - 2%. The spot indicators continued to fall. Trade war uncertainties remain, the demand expectation for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1408.800, down 39.2; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1750, down 18.70. The EC2510 - EC2512 spread was - 341.20, down 17.20; the EC2510 - EC2602 spread was - 108.30, down 13.90. The EC contract basis was 826.68, down 35.18. The main contract's open interest was 56688, up 86 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Index Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1082.14, down 47.98. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1489.68, down 61.06. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1799.05, up 9.55 [1]. 3.3 Freight Index and Charter Price Data - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2051.00, down 43.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1635.00, up 14.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 13075.00, up 386.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 25236.00, down 1250.00 [1]. 3.4 Industry News - The personnel changes at the Federal Reserve have led to adjustments in policy expectations. JPMorgan currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting, followed by three more 25 - basis - point cuts and then an indefinite pause. The US government will stop providing tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30. In July, the sales of electric vehicles accounted for 9.1% of the total passenger car sales, a record high, and the sales of used electric vehicles were close to 36700, also a monthly high. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's July policy meeting showed that although most members still supported future interest rate hikes, concerns about the negative impact of US tariff increases on the Japanese economy cooled market bets on short - term interest rate hikes [1]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Data and Trade Policy Impact - US President Trump signed an executive order to modify "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with tax rates ranging from 10% to 41%. Goods considered to be transshipped to avoid tariffs will be subject to an additional 40% tariff. The US S&P Global Composite PMI index in June fell slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. The US retail sales data in June rebounded unexpectedly, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.6%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 0.1%. China recently imposed counter - measures on Belarusian and medical device products from the EU, further intensifying Sino - EU trade tensions [1].