瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250811

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The alumina market may see a slight increase in both supply and demand. Costs are supported, and supply expectations are improved by policies. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. The option market is bullish. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand in the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. Suggest light - position and oscillatory trading [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,700 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the alumina futures main contract closes at 3,182 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote is 2,615 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars. The spreads of some contracts show various changes [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 215,510 hands, down 6,228 hands; the alumina main contract is 114,892 hands, down 7,074 hands [2]. - Inventory: The LME aluminum inventory is 470,575 tons, up 1,075 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 113,614 tons, down 3,913 tons; the alumina total inventory is 85,472 tons, up 38,284 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 115 yuan/ton, down 595 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 70 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: The alumina production is 774.93 tons, up 26.13 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45%. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 696.19 tons, down 23.83 tons [2]. - Import and Export: The import of alumina is 10.13 tons, up 3.38 tons; the export is 17.00 tons, down 4.00 tons. The import of aluminum scrap and waste is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Production and Capacity: The electrolytic aluminum total capacity is 4,523.20 tons, up 2.50 tons; the production of aluminum products is 587.37 tons, up 11.17 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 tons, up 0.29 tons [2]. - Import and Export: The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.20 tons, up 5.20 tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 2.58 tons, up 0.16 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of automobiles is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles; the production of aluminum alloy is 166.90 tons, up 2.40 tons [2]. - Market Index: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 7.78%, down 1.51%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.69%, down 0.01%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.77%, up 0.0005 [2]. - Ratio: The put - call ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.15, up 0.0039 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Economic Data: In July, the CPI环比 turned from a 0.1% decline to a 0.4% increase, and the PPI环比 decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points [2]. - Trade Forecast: The WTO expects the global goods trade volume to grow by 0.9% in 2025 [2]. - Policy Statements: Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year; US Treasury Secretary Bentsen comments on Trump's tariff policy and the Fed chair [2]. - Consumption Promotion: The "Thousands of Counties and Ten Thousand Towns" new - energy vehicle consumption season starts, and in July, the production and retail of new - energy vehicles show significant growth [2].