国债期货日报-20250811

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market has not yet shown an independent trend. Under the unchanged dominance of risk preference, the market makes bond trading based on stock market performance, and the volatile pattern may continue. It is necessary to wait for new driving factors to break the balance. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the moment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.11%, 0.08%, 0.01%, and 0.55% respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes increased to 76,606, 56,309, 34,103, and 111,356 respectively [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.06 to -0.43; T2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.00 to -0.11; TF2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.01 to 0.05; TS2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.01 to 0.04; T09 - TL09 spread increased by 0.58 to -10.11; TF09 - T09 spread increased by 0.04 to -2.76; TS09 - T09 spread increased by 0.13 to -6.13; TS09 - TF09 spread increased by 0.09 to -3.37 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased to 157,180, 108,276, 78,794, and 92,576 respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL top 20 long positions changed to 194,913 (up 1,334), 142,387 (down 803), 81,413 (up 616), and 120,931 (up 831) respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL top 20 short positions changed to 193,534 (down 1,096), 154,177 (down 1,574), 88,984 (down 717), and 115,443 (down 1,235) respectively. T, TF, TS, and TL top 20 net short positions changed to -1,379 (up 2,430), 11,790 (down 771), 7,571 (down 1,333), and -5,488 (up 2,066) respectively [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - The clean prices of several bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, 240020.IB, etc. all decreased [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.45bp, 0.25bp respectively, while the yield of 10y increased by 0.35bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, Shibor overnight, and silver - pledged 14 - day interest rates increased by 1.17bp, 0.06bp, and 7.00bp respectively; Shibor 7 - day and Shibor 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.36bp and 1.39bp respectively; silver - pledged 7 - day interest rate remained unchanged [2] 3.7 LPR Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 112 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 554.8 billion yuan, with a net回笼 of 442.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.9 Industry News - In July, the CPI环比 turned from a 0.1% decline last month to a 0.4% increase, and was flat year - on - year; the PPI环比 decreased by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from last month, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as last month. On August 11, the Ministry of Finance revised and issued the "Administrative Measures for Funds to Support Preschool Education Development". On August 8, Beijing optimized and adjusted real estate policies, allowing residents who meet the purchase conditions to buy an unlimited number of commercial housing units outside the Fifth Ring Road [2] 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - Pay attention to the US July unadjusted CPI annual rate at 20:30 on August 11 and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 (in ten thousand people) at 20:30 on August 14 [3]