农产品早报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market supply increases slightly and prices weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, potential import growth and new - season supply increase may pressure prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, it follows raw material price fluctuations, with high inventory and is expected to be weak. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure affects prices, but there may be a rebound. Domestically, large imports will put pressure on the market [6]. - Cotton: It is in a consolidation phase, and if there are no major macro - risks, the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: After a price rebound and correction, demand may pick up in mid - August, but high inventory may limit the upside [9]. - Apples: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable [12]. - Pigs: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is not improved. There is medium - term supply pressure, and futures need spot verification [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From August 5 - 11, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a maximum decrease of 8 yuan/ton in Weifang. Starch processing profit increased by 22 yuan [2]. - Market Analysis: Reserve auctions and new - season corn impact the corn market. Starch is affected by raw material prices and high inventory [3]. Sugar - Price Data: From August 5 - 11, sugar prices in major regions decreased, and import profit decreased significantly, with a maximum reduction of 77 yuan [6]. - Market Analysis: Brazilian supply and domestic imports influence the sugar market [6]. Cotton - Price Data: From August 5 - 11, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 40 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 128 [7]. - Market Analysis: Cotton is in a waiting phase for demand verification, and the downside is limited under certain conditions [7]. Eggs - Price Data: From August 5 - 11, egg prices in major production areas increased, with a maximum increase of 0.22 yuan. The basis increased by 141 [8]. - Market Analysis: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand factors, then corrected, and may rise again with upcoming festivals, but high inventory is a constraint [9]. Apples - Price Data: From August 5 - 11, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the basis for different contracts changed significantly [11][12]. - Market Analysis: New - season apples are in the growth stage, and consumption is in the off - season [12]. Pigs - Price Data: From August 5 - 11, pig prices in some regions were stable or changed slightly, and the basis increased by 40 [12]. - Market Analysis: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is weak. There is medium - term supply pressure and policy expectations [12].