LPG早报-20250812

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The overall LPG market is expected to fluctuate as the basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no obvious fundamental driver [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Spot Prices: On August 11, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4360, 4401, and 4490 respectively, with daily changes of -20, -2, and -30. The cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4360 [1] - International Market Prices: Propane CFR South China was 555, propane CIF Japan was 519, and MB propane spot was 67. CP forecast contract price was 520, with a daily change of -2 [1] - Other Product Prices: Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4880, Shandong alkylated oil was 7830, paper import profit was -232, and the main basis was 561, with a daily change of -45 [1] Market Trends - Futures Market: The PG futures market showed a mixed trend. The futures price strengthened, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -474 (+4). The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread was -478 (-39). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10179 lots (+420) [1] - International Market: The international market fundamentals were loose. FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. North - Asia and Middle - East oil - gas price ratios declined, while the North - American oil - gas price ratio slightly increased. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly Outlook - Supply and Demand: Unloading port volume increased, port inventory rose, factory inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the commercial volume increased by 0.57%. PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+1.21pct), with some plants starting, restarting, or shutting down [1] - Profitability: PDH spot profit weakened, paper profit continued to improve. Alkylated oil production gross profit decreased. MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit increased slightly, and isomerization etherification gross profit decreased slightly [1] - Shipping and Costs: VLGCs' waiting time at the Panama Canal increased, expected to decline later. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle - East to the Far - East increased. FEI - MOPJ narrowed significantly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]