Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall view on copper prices is bullish, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage positions between domestic and overseas markets in the remaining time of the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, in the short - term, it is advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to the far - month inter - month and domestic - overseas reverse arbitrage; in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases, and the overseas supply is the main variable, so pay attention to the actual demand situation [2] - Regarding zinc, in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see and focus on the sustainability of commodity sentiment due to the strong overseas and weak domestic situation; the domestic - overseas positive arbitrage can continue to be held, and attention can be paid to the inter - month positive arbitrage opportunity [5] - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about the game of anti - involution policies. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be concerned [8] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak. In the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [11] - For lead, it is expected that battery factories will replenish stocks next week, and the center of lead prices will rise [12] - For tin, in the short - term, it is recommended to sell short lightly at high prices due to the co - existence of domestic raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [13] - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and if either the southwest or Hesheng reaches full production, the monthly balance will quickly turn to surplus; in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16] - For lithium carbonate, in the short - term, the price has a large upward elasticity; in the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at a low level, and the downward space needs a significant weakening of demand [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - In the first half of the week, copper prices found support around 78,000 yuan, and downstream point - pricing and inventory - stocking improved. In the second half of the week, with the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of overseas interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices were strong. The downstream start - up and purchasing power provided support, and the refined - scrap substitution effect worked, so the copper inventory accumulation trend was not strong [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May due to aluminum ingot imports. In August, demand is expected to be in the seasonal off - season, with weak aluminum product exports, a decline in the photovoltaic sector, and some downstream production cuts. Overseas demand has declined significantly. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and in the long - term, the domestic supply elasticity decreases [2] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic TC has difficulty rising, while the imported TC rises slowly. In August, the smelting increment is further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand weakens seasonally, and overseas, some refineries face production resistance. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5] Nickel - On the supply side, the pure nickel production remains at a high level. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. The domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain stable [8] Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills have reduced production passively. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid needs, and some inventory replenishment has increased due to the macro - environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts remain stable [11] Lead - This week, lead prices declined. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead maintains low - level operation. On the demand side, the battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectation has fallen back to reality. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased [12] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the domestic smelting output may decline slightly from July to August, and overseas, the resumption of production signals are released but with recruitment difficulties. On the demand side, the solder elasticity is limited, and the terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth rates are expected to decline. The domestic inventory rises, and the overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a risk of short - squeeze [13] Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the supply and demand in August have turned to a balanced state, and if either the southwest or Hesheng reaches full production, the monthly balance will quickly turn to surplus. In the long - term, the production capacity is still in significant surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, due to the resource - end compliance disturbances and the approaching downstream peak season, the price has a large upward elasticity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the resource - end disturbance risk is resolved, the price will still fluctuate at a low level [18]
永安期货有色早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-12 01:20