大越期货尿素早报-20250812

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall over - supply in China. The recent urea futures market has been oscillating, and after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the trend has returned to the fundamentals. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is increasing, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the UR futures will oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The daily production and operating rate of domestic urea are still at a relatively high level, and the inventory has increased again. In terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand has continued to decline, and agricultural demand is expected to continue to fall. The overall over - supply situation in the domestic urea market is still obvious, while the export profit is strengthening, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 59, and the premium - discount ratio is 3.3%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is oscillating. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic over - supply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: The bullish factor is that the international price is strong; the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Market Conditions | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (+30), the Shandong spot price is 1810 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1810 (-23), and the FOB China price is 2750 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1751 (unchanged), the basis is 59 (+10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1790 (+6), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1722 (-6) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 3623 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.459 million tons (-18,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.019 million tons (-77,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 440,000 tons (+59,000 tons) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | | [10] |