大越期货玻璃早报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market is expected to be mainly in a wide - range oscillatory operation, with a short - term outlook of weak oscillation. The glass has returned to its weak fundamental state, and the follow - up inventory reduction sustainability is questionable [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals show that glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, the start - up rate and output have dropped to the low level of the same period in history; deep - processing orders are less than the same period in previous years, and terminal demand is weak [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1104 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1219 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 115 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - The inventory shows that the inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The disk shows that the price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - The main position shows that the main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - The expectation is that the glass returns to the weak fundamentals, and it is expected to mainly operate with weak oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Likely to Rise Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Likely to Fall Factors: The terminal demand in the real estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and the downstream has carried out phased replenishment, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventories. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that the glass will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract has increased from 1196 yuan/ton to 1219 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.92%. - The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remains unchanged at 1104 yuan/ton. - The main basis has changed from - 92 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a change of 25.00% [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1104 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Cost Side No detailed information provided. 3.7 Fundamentals - Production and Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 223, with an operating rate of 75.19%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [25]. 3.8 Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [29]. - The downstream terminal demand in the real estate industry is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [4]. 3.9 Fundamentals - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.95% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][42]. 3.10 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in production, consumption, and other data of float glass over the years, including production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].