大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250812

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: August 12, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by cost support but also faces weak demand. For PP, similar factors of cost support and weak demand are at play. The domestic macro - policy has an impact on the market, but after the sentiment cools down, the market returns to the fundamentals [4][6][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, up 7.2% year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market returned to fundamentals after the sentiment cooled. Short - term oil prices fluctuated downward. In the supply - demand side, it's the off - season for agricultural films, with a slight recovery in short - term production but still at a low level. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7260 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 54, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 577,000 tons (+14,000), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. The increase from the "anti - involution" policy has reversed. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It's expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [6] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy drive [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro data shows contraction in the manufacturing sector. The "anti - involution" policy impact fades. Short - term oil prices fluctuate downward. It's the off - season for downstream demand, mainly driven by rigid demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving remains weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 7100 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 20, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 587,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract fluctuates. The increase from the "anti - involution" policy has reversed. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It's expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support [9] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [9] - Main Logic: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy drive [9] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 7260 (+20), the 09 contract price is 7314 (+24), the basis is - 54 (- 4), the warehouse receipt is 6282 (+400), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 577,000 tons, and the PE social inventory is 569,000 tons (- 7,000) [10] - PP: The spot delivery price is 7100 (- 0), the 09 contract price is 7095 (+33), the basis is - 20 (- 29), the warehouse receipt is 12540 (+0), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 587,000 tons, and the PP social inventory is 284,000 tons [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]