Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].
《有色》日报-20250812
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-12 01:33