芳烃橡胶早报-20250812

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Near - term开工环比回升，聚酯负荷小幅提升，库存累积，基差偏弱，现货加工费低；PX国内开工小幅回升，海外检修重启并存，开工小幅回落，PXN环比走强。 TA低加工费下额外检修增加，需求端长丝产销乏力但难减产，瓶片低开工去库，聚酯开工预计走稳并向上，供需有望改善，关注逢低做扩加工费机会 [2] - MEG: 近端国内装置部分推迟重启，开工基本持稳，海外意外检修，周内到港回升发货平稳预计港口库存累积，下游备货回升，基差持稳，油制效益修复。短期累库压力不大，港口库存预计偏低，远月检修回归与新装置投产有累库预期，估值受成本影响大，偏宽幅震荡，关注卫星重启进度 [2] - Polyester Staple Fiber: 近端华西提负，开工小幅回升至90.6%，产销持稳，库存累积。需求端涤纱开工持稳，原料备货维持，成品库存去化，效益修复。下游开工后续或抬升，短纤供应可能提升，盘面加工费低，关注逢低做扩加工费机会 [2] - Natural Rubber & 20 - Rubber: 主要矛盾是全国显性库存持稳，无季节性去化，泰国杯胶价格反弹，降雨影响割胶，策略为观望 [2] - Styrene: 相关产品价格有一定变化，如乙烯、纯苯等价格波动，国产利润也有不同程度变动 [2] 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Index Changes: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, crude oil price remained at 66.6, PX price decreased by 3, PTA price increased by 70, PX processing margin increased by 7, polyester gross profit decreased by 2.8, and PTA basis increased by 5 [2] - Device Changes: Shandong Weilian's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [2] MEG - Price and Index Changes: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, Northeast Asia ethylene price increased by 5, MEG external price increased by 4, MEG internal price increased by 19, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 19 [2] - Device Changes: Shanxi Wouneng's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable, short - fiber profit was stable, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber increased by 40 [2] - Device Changes: Not mentioned Natural Rubber & 20 - Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, the price of US - dollar Thai standard increased by 60, the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 430, and the price of RU main contract increased by 1390 [2] - Device Changes: Not mentioned Styrene - Price and Index Changes: From 2025/08/05 to 2025/08/11, ethylene price remained stable, pure benzene price remained stable in some cases, and styrene CFR China price increased by 3 [2] - Device Changes: Not mentioned