建信期货生猪日报-20250812

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 11th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then冲高回落 and closed down. The highest price was 14,325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,115 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The total open interest of the index increased by 1,951 lots to 177,891 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 11th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Market Analysis - Demand: The utilization rate of pigsty is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and slaughterhouse orders are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses have increased slightly. On August 11, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 139,000 heads, an increase of 800 heads from the previous day and 1,800 heads from a week ago [9]. - Supply: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from the actual slaughter volume in July. At the beginning of the month, the slaughter enthusiasm of farmers is high, the slaughter progress is fast, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsty remains high, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9]. Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of farmers increases, and the current slaughter enthusiasm is okay. At the same time, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose. The spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9]. - Futures: Currently, the near - month 2509 contract follows the spot market and fluctuates weakly. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, and the demand increase is relatively large. The price performance may fluctuate strongly. Domestic anti - involution initiatives, high - quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts are beneficial to the long - term pig price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies on production capacity later [9]. Group 3: Industry News - No specific content provided, only chart information about breeding profit, breeding cost, etc. [12] Group 4: Data Overview - Breeding Profit: As of August 7, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 54 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/head [14]. - Piglet Price: In the week of August 7, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [14]. - Sows Inventory: As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 6.71% [14]. - Planned Slaughter Volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase from July [14]. - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of August 7, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.27% [14]