Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The peak of the peak season in the spot market has appeared, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased decline. The market lacks a coordinated price - supporting atmosphere, and the spot price of freight has likely reached its peak. Freight rates are expected to enter a downward channel in August. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to grasp the downward trend and short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the peak season has passed. This week, the SCFIS has further declined with an increased decline. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes have been decreasing. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. Considering the large impact on foreign trade and the relatively high level of运力 supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year [8] - Operation Suggestion: The main 10 - contract has a deep discount. The market may have a game on the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. Most route market freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the comprehensive index. On August 8th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9] - Trade Data: In the first 7 months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% year - on - year increase, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. However, future China - EU trade may face greater competition pressure [9] - Route Freight Rates: On August 8th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period. The market situation of the Mediterranean route was basically the same as that of the European route, with a slight decline in the spot booking price [10] - International Incidents: The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and announced "sanctions" on 64 shipping companies. The international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Index | August 11, 2025 | August 4, 2025 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Basic Ports) | 2235.48 | 2297.86 | - 62.38 | - 2.7% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Basic Ports) | 1082.14 | 1130.12 | - 47.98 | - 4.2% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The report provides data on the trading of multiple container shipping European line futures contracts on August 11, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][19]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250812
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-12 02:03